Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai: A greatest thinker or a greatest fool?

Less than 6 months left for elections in Afghanistan and nearly 22 candidates for the important job in the country, Afghanistan is seeing Warlords and politicians trying their best to win the support of people. Many of these candidates are former Warlords and known criminals of civil war that killed thousands of innocent people in the struggle to gain power just after the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the country.

Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai an Afghan politician, currently chairman of ISE (Institute of State Effectiveness) and writer of the book "Fixing Failed States"

Among many candidates one of the most famous and important figure is Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, western educated and the writer of "Fixing Failed States" who was former minister of finance in Afghanistan and is ranked third world's best thinker Mr Ahmadzai made a controversial decision by making a former civil war warlord General Abdul Rashid Dostum to become his vice-president. Abdul Rashid Dostum who apologized this week for his involvement in the country's civil war between the year 1992 till 1996 killed many innocent Afghans. Till this day people in Kabul and all over Afghanistan remember low rank commanders and soldiers of Dostum raping many young girls and boys, looting of houses and killing of young men and women during his control in many provinces across the country. The stories of civil war and the barbarism are still echoed across the country yet a very unexpected decision of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai made many hopeful people hopeless after the world known anthropologist relied on Afghanistan's known warlord.

In the world of politics the strength and power of a person is more important than anything else in order to achieve your goals one must rely upon the power of an individual instead of their education or any kind of criminal background. The votes of Uzbek ethnic in Afghanistan which makes nearly 10% of Afghanistan population are now in complete support of Ahmadzai because of Dostum's ethnic background and a strong support of Uzbek population of Afghanistan for their only known fearsome and strong politician in the country. Many candidates were waiting for the decision of Dostum that who he would like to support in the election but it seemed that the only person who could help him get the seat of vice president is no one other than Ashraf Ghani. Mr Ahmadzai who got the support of Hazara ethnic by appointing Sarwar Danish as his second vice-president the support for his presidential campaign is stronger than 2009 election. Many other known ethnic Hazara leaders such as Mohammad Karim Khalili and a well known Ramazan Bashardost are also supporting Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, this gives him advantage of getting the support of both Hazara and Uzbek ethnic votes more than any other candidate in the election.

General Abdul Rashid Dostum waving hand to his supporters during a political rally.

The other candidates such as Abdullah Abdullah and Ahmad Zia Massoud are distributing the votes of the majority of Tajik ethnic while in South and South-Eastern Afghanistan the votes are distributed between Gul Agha Sherzai, Qaium Karzai and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. Most of the people in Western and Eastern Afghanistan are educated therefore their votes are not based on the ethnic background of a candidate rather more about the vision and the education of an individual which gives Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai an upper hand for being a well known educated politician therefore majority of the people in west and east will choose to vote for Ashraf Ghani than anyone else, also Zalmai Khalilzad who is supported by many people in western Afghanistan backs Ashraf Ghani and wants his supporters to vote for Ashraf Ghani. In 2009 election most of the votes for Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai were from western and eastern Afghanistan while the southern region had the supporters of Hamid Karzai and the rest of the country's ethnic votes were divided based on their ethnic candidates such as Abdullah Abdullah an ethnic tajik and Ramazan Bashardost who is ethnic hazara.
Hashmat Ghani Ahmadzai who is the brother of Ashraf Ghani is also candidate for presidential election with the great support of nomadic people. Over 2 million kuchis who are the supporters of Hashmat Ghani Ahmadzai can be beneficial for Ashraf Ghani if after election his brother Hashmat Ghani announces his support for Ashraf Ghani, which is without any doubts going to be the case after the election therefore Ashraf Ghani got the support of more Afghans than any other candidate in the country's election.

Dostum a warlord against warlords?

Abdul Rashid Dostum who is known for his crimes during the civil war is also known among his rival warlords to be one of the dangerous and brutal warlord. His fighters were known as "Gelam Jam" who used to sweep a region from their enemies including innocent civilians from different ethnics where ever they used to go to fight against other warlords in order to spread fear in the hearts of every individual that supported the opposition of Dostum.
Abdul Rashid Dostum has an old enemy of his who is currently the governor of Balkh Province, Mohammad Atta Noor who is known as the King of the North is a hard person yet with a history of defeat from the hands of Dostum's fighters he is now so powerful that since 2004 no one is replaced in his position to become the governor of Balkh province where the activity of Iranian government and their spy agency is increased daily along with high level of influence in the country's politics the governor is also known as "dictator" of Balkh.

Abdul Rashid Dostum on the left and Mohammad Atta Noor on the right.

Mohammad Atta Noor favored Taliban over Abdul Rashid Dostum describing him as "brutal and inhuman individual" in one of his interview with Afghan tv channel. Atta Noor who took many decisions against the current government and the administration of Hamid Karzai is seen a threat to the country by many politicians who see him as a powerful warlord that can kill anyone that speaks against him therefore Ashraf Ghani needed someone who could keep people like Atta Noor under his thumb and keep an eye on the influence of Iranian government in the North of the country which is creating a hostile situation in the country's politics.
There are many other known warlords and politicians from the north of the country that are involved in corruption, drug trafficking and many other crimes that was not under the control of Hamid Karzai therefore choosing a brutal warlord such as Dostum to control other warlords in the country is not only beneficial but a good move seen by many political analysts in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan's economy and foreign relation with Central Asia

Mr Ahmadzai who is known economic expert has a vision of having close relationship with central asian countries in order to boast the economy of Afghanistan by making it more independent rather then depending on the aid of the Western donors that is the only reason for creating corruption in the country and making it difficult for Afghanistan to move forward since there is no sign of industrial progress in the country since the invasion of Afghanistan by US in 2001. Abdul Rashid Dostum who is ethnic Uzbek can have keep a close relation with neighboring Uzbekistan where the economy of the country is predicted to increase by 7% by the end of the year 2013 and on the other hand Tajikistan is an important country for Afghanistan to have economic relation that can help bring back the country's industrial programme giving chance for the unemployed youth of Afghanistan to get jobs instead of turning into drug addicts and joining the opposition against the government.
Afghanistan's relation with Pakistan are quiet fragile to the extend that still Kunar province is shelled by Pakistani military under the pretext of "war against taliban" as for Abdul Rashid Dostum who is known to be strongly against Pakistani involvement and interference in the country he could be a good asset for Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai against the deceptive foreign policy of Pakistan against Afghanistan.

Many Afghans who are against the decision of Ashraf Ghani choosing Abdul Rashid as his vice-president are asking for justice, no one can argue the fact that Abdul Rashid is a war criminal along with many other candidates such as Abdul-rab Rasul Sayyaf who invited Osama Bin Laden to Afghanistan and other warlords of civil war but Afghanistan is not yet ready to give justice to the innocent people who were killed by the hands of these Warlords because influence and corruption is the main weapon used by these Warlords keeping the country into chaos as they live in the state of impunity. Maybe one day when the right time comes these criminals will be put on trial and Afghan nation will find justice but that day is not today.